Gold Surges 5% After America Votes Trump President
- Gold surged over 5% â from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz prior to profit taking
- Gold jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House; Largest gains since Brexit shock
- For the next few days, we can expect to follow the âBrexit playbookâ
- âWe are looking at very real prospects that the Fed would defer that rate hike into 2017â¦â
Gold has surged more than 3% to over $1,300/oz today after the shock election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States of America. At one stage gold was 5% higher having risen from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz as the dollar and stocks globally saw sharp falls.
The world isn’t sure what to make of it, other than concluding that perhaps Brexit wasn’t a mistake at all. Instead, it was a sign of the deep seated resentment and anger with the political and economic status quo foisted on the working and middle classes by western governments in thrall to corporation and banks.
Brexit and what will no doubt be seen as Brexit II, have both sent shockwaves through the US economy this year. Back in January had you asked for odds of both the UK leaving the EU, or the presenter of the Apprentice winning the US election, you probably would have been laughed out of the shop.
But that attitude has caused much turmoil. We are not seeing as big a shock in the markets as we saw in Brexit, however there is a flight to safe havens. Early this morning investors were piling into gold, bitcoin, Japanese yen and government bonds as yet again investors, bookmakers and the media were wrong-footed and completely wrong with their definitive predictions of a Clinton win.
The gold price jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House. It marks gold’s biggest daily gain (so far today) since Brexit when the price rose as much as 8% and closed on June 24, up 4.8%on the day.
At present the jump in gold lags that seen over Brexit, but the Trump victory is likely the beginning of uncertainty and panic setting in across global markets given the massive political and economic uncertainty that has been created.
The surprise of Brexit and Trump means we have gone from pricing in the known to pricing in the unknown.
Brexit II and the politics of anger?
âFor the next few days, we can expect to follow the âBrexit playbookâ.A big sell-off of US assets is a given, as is a subsequent bounce. Emerging markets will be a particular victim due to their dependence on trade. They appeared to be at the beginning of a renaissance; that is now in question. Markets tend to overshoot, and this will produce some buying opportunities and bargains.â wrote John Authers in the FT.
But will the markets begin to recover as they did with Brexit, in the aftermath of the result and the calm before it becomes a reality in January? Therefore, what is happening today or for the rest of the month, does it matter? Surely the zeitgeist, the forces that brought in Brexit and Trump will continue to make an impact.
âWith so many years of low and non-inclusive growth, we are witnessing the politics of anger at play, a phenomenon that polls have underestimated on both sides of the Atlantic. Both the establishment and expert opinion are being challenged in a big way,â Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, told the FT.
With this in mind we should be considering the medium-long term future, rather than the fall-out from a Trump win today, and Brexit win this year. The reality of the US economy is unlikely to improve â in has been in this poor state for many years.
When the financial crisis emerged in 2008 it was expected that a political crisis would soon follow. In many ways we have been lucky that it has taken this long to appear.
Central bankers, financial institutions and the ‘one percent’ have been blamed for eight years, now the electorate has had enough and are looking for a shake-up in the status quo that has for so long failed to serve them. Feeling disenfranchised from government is ânow a permanent statement of affairs in the United statesâ Robert Shapiro told Bloomberg this morning.
Very few saw it coming.
âBrexit showed that polls are imperfect, and we are in an era of populism which is playing havoc with normal assumptions,â said Matt Peron, head of equities at Northern Trust, told the FT.
This also shows that Brexit was not a mistake as so many Remainers want the world to believe. Now the US, along with the UK has voted against aspects of globalisation. Economic insecurity felt by the individuals who were voting was a common thread across both the US and those in the UK during Brexit.
Soon they may well not be the only two in the Western world to do so.
We have key events coming up in Italy, France, the Netherlands and Germany. This may be good for the US markets and the dollar in the short-term, as markets may well end up quickly refocusing their attention on the Eurozone and the challenges facing the euro.
How will gold react now?
As we have written about extensively in the last few days, gold will be the one of the few winners in this election. In the immediate future, this is still all about uncertainties, no one knows how Trump will play the President role. We have a President-elect who has never served in public-office before, this adds a huge amount to the amount of unease that is not only being felt in the United States but across America.
John Authers wrote this morning, âThe certainties that had reassured the investors and financiers since the era of Thatcher and Reagan and that are now in question include a global commitment to free trade, independent central banks, a financialised version of capitalism, and relatively limited social safety nets.â
This morning we saw gold’s rally pull back slightly during Trump’s victory speech, one that showed a man who is in fact able to be calm, measured and suggest an inclusive government that works for all.
âGold’s near-term moves will be determined by how much the president-elect tones down his strident rhetoric