This week, Thomson Reuters GFMS released its annual World Silver Survey, an extensive report on the price of silver and the silver market completed annually on behalf of the Silver Institute.

The report covers a number of supply and demand factors driving the price of silver, including specific sector and country overviews. This year, Thomson Reuters sees the price of silver averaging at $15.90 per ounce by year-end. The price of silver is expected to move higher in 2016, to $17.50 per ounce.

To get a bit more insight into the results of this year’s silver survey, the Investing News Network spoke with Erica Rannestad, senior precious metals analyst at Thomson Reuters. Overall, while the price of silver isn’t expected to take off in 2016, there are some signs that things could be looking up for the white metal.

Get Our Expert Guide to Silver Investing FREE!

Download this FREE Special Report, When Will Silver Go Up: Is the Highest Price of Silver Still to Come?

 

Factors driving the price of silver last year

Thomson Reuters reported that the silver market ended 2015 in an annual physical deficit for the third-year running. On top of that, this year’s deficit of 129.8 million ounces was 60 percent larger than last year’s deficit-and also the third largest deficit on record.

So why isn’t the price of silver higher? When is silver going up? Beyond broader weak sentiment in the metals space, there are a few reasons for last year’s weakness in the price of silver, according to Rannestad:

  • Coin and bar demand; Rannestad stated that the deficit was driven by higher silver coin and bar demand, which in turn was driven by record low prices themselves. “Coin and bar demand is much more price sensitive in most years,” she said. “For example, if
    [investors] have got $1,000 to spend every year on silver, they get to buy more ounces in a lower priced environment than they would in a higher priced environment. So that’s why there’s such a large deficit.”
  • Risk of selloff at higher prices; Furthermore, all of that coin and bar ownership creates a bit of a risk factor. “If you saw prices increase, at certain levels you might see some of those investors sell into those prices, and that could really flush the market with a lot of supply,” she said.
  • Silver shorts; The spot price of silver dropped 14 percent in 2015, so it isn’t surprising that some investors chose to go short on silver. “The surface deficit captures that source of investment for bars but it doesn’t capture what’s going on in terms of influencing price in the futures and options market,” she said. “But the futures and options market does influence the price, and because the view on silver price was negative in the short term, you saw a lot o