Will the London Gold Market Self Destruct?

  • London Gold Market has been unchallenged for nearly 100 years

  • So opaque that quotes of its $5 trillion size are estimates

  • Five new offerings are set to appear in the market in the next six months

  • Increased fragmentation set to reduce liquidity

  • A share of gold price discovery is ripe to be taken by China

  • Disruption in the London Gold Market gives opportunity to the East to take more control of the market.

As markets go the London Gold Market has to be one of the oldest and most unchallenged markets there is. With its roots in the 17th century it has been through a series of makeovers but for much of the last century the OTC market has hardly changed.

But now it is having an identity crisis. In the last year we have seen a barrage of news about changes that are coming, and the last few weeks seem to have been busier than ever.

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For some the $5 trillion London Gold Market is under serious threat and there are a number of reasons as to why including regulation, gold price discovery and a lack of transparency all items that have haunted players in the London gold market.

Now, the threats that face it are driving many to address these problems and attempt to disrupt the market. We take a quick look at the new offerings set to arrive in the coming months, and ask if they will weaken, rather than strengthen, the London Gold Market and thereby open up an opportunity for China.

The LBMA, a fintech start-up and transparency

Right now there is no data on how much gold is traded each day. The LBMA who currently runs the joint have accepted that this lack of transparency has long been a major criticism, by both market participants and the regulators.

With this in mind it has seen the light that ‘fintech’ offers and has opened itself up to disruption before it is disrupted. Earlier this year it announced Boat Services Ltd. and Autilla Inc. had been chosen to create transparency in the market by building a trading platform.

The 149 LBMA members will report their trades to the new platform.

When the LBMA announced the initiative with Boat Services, it was made clear that the new arrangement would “go beyond UK and global regulators’ demands for data on derivatives trading

[and showed] a commitment to transparency.”

London Metals Exchange, World Gold Council, ICE, CME and blockchain all want in

  • The LME along with the World Gold Council has launched ‘LME Precious’ as their route to the highly attractive London Gold Market. For this group it is about clearing for spot and managing risk.

‘The new contracts are designed to complement London’s over-the-counter gold and silver market’ reports Bloomberg.

In the first-half of 2017 centrally cleared gold and silver contracts are set to be introduced. The new contracts will “include contracts for spot, daily and monthly futures, options and calendar spread contracts.”

  • The Intercontinental Exchange took over the London gold auction in 2015, replacing the gold-fixing by phone ritual with an electronic platform. Now it wants to play a further role and announced last month that as of February it would start a new loco London futures contract use this to clear its daily auction.

  • Earlier this week CME Group announced that as of January it will start to offer gold and silver contracts listed on COMEX, “to offer a spread between spot prices and benchmark U.S. futures.”

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As you can see from the graph, COMEX and London offer the largest pools of liquidity. The 100 ounc