Is Silver Going Up in 2016?

2015 was a turbulent year for silver. Like many metals, it declined steadily over the course of the year, ultimately recording a fall of just under 15 percent.

While that’s undeniably negative, as 2016 drew to a close, market participants were nevertheless hopeful about silver’s prospects in 2016. Many were asking the question, “is silver going up in 2016?” and finding out that the answer might be “yes.”

In particular, silver price predictions from key firms were buoying hopes about silver. For example, Thomson Reuters GFMS was calling for an average 2016 silver price of $16.80 per ounce. Meanwhile, other firms had put forward the following estimates:

Capital Economics – $20 per ounce (by end of year)

CIBC – $15 per ounce

Citi Research – $15.70 per ounce

Commerzbank (OTCMKTS:CRZBY) – $16.50 per ounce (Q1 and Q2 2016)

HSBC – $18.25 per ounce

Natixis (EPA:KN) – $12.80 per ounce

With the first quarter of 2016 now over, it’s interesting to look back at the question, “is silver going up in 2016?” Here’s a brief overview of how silver has fared so far this year, and a look at the factors that may influence it moving forward.

Taking a look at the chart below, it’s clear that silver has trended upward in 2016:

Silver price year-to-date as of March 30, 2016.

More specifically, the white metal had gained 8.1 percent, or $1.14, as of March 30. That’s less than gold‘s 14.84-percent rise since the start of 2016, but nevertheless impressive.

Looking further at stats, silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17, when it reached $15.90. That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged. Gold also got a major boost that day – investors tend to turn to both metals when interest rates are low.

On the flip side, silver hit its lowest point of the year on January 12, the day it sank to $13.77. There don’t appear to have been any specific triggers for that drop, which came just a few days after problems in the Chinese stock market resulted in a very good week for silver and gold.

Most recently, the silver price was sitting at $15.22 as of 5:00 p.m. EST on March 30, and many market watchers are suggesting that further gains could be in store later this year. In particular, analysts have said that the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates low could positively impact silver (and gold) even down the road. Notably, while previously four rate hikes were expected in 2016, now only two are believed to be in the cards.

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So is silver going up in 2016? It’s too soon to tell whether it will see an overall increase for the year, but with the gains it’s already made, prospects seem good. Silver bugs will no doubt be watching closely for cues about what the precious metal will do next.

This is an updated version of an article first published on Silver Investing News on June 12, 2015.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Gold Buoyed as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

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