Is Silver Going Up in 2017?

2016 was a rollercoaster year and precious metals, including silver, were impacted by political concerns and uncertainty worldwide, such as Brexit results and the US election outcome.

Silver prices steadily increased during the first half of the year, reaching a high of $20.28 per ounce in July. Even though the white metal pulled back to hit a low of $15.76 in December, market participants were hopeful about silver’s prospects in 2017.

As 2016 drew to a close, many were asking the question, “is silver going up in 2017?” and finding out that the answer might be “yes”.

In particular, silver price predictions from key firms were buoying hopes about silver. For example, some had put forward the following estimates:

• Capital Economics – $16 per ounce
• CIBC – $16.90 per ounce
• Citi Research – $15.50 per ounce
• Commerzbank (OTCMKTS:CRZBY) – $19 per ounce (Q3 and Q4 2017)
• HSBC – $16 to 21.50 per ounce
• RBC Capital Markets – $19.30 per ounce

That said, it’s interesting to look back at the question, “is silver going up in 2017?” Here’s a brief overview of how silver has fared so far this year, and a look at the factors that may influence it moving forward.

Taking a look at the chart below, it’s clear that after hitting a low at the end of last year, silver has trended upward in 2017:

More specifically, the white metal has gained 12.75 percent, or $2.03, as of February 15. The current silver/gold ratio is 68.5, still a bit far from the 10-year average of 61.55, but nevertheless impressive compared to the end of 2016.

Looking further at stats, silver hit its highest point in 2017 on February 12, when it briefly reached $18, a three-month high. At the time, the white metal hit the highest level since the aftermath of the US presidential election, despite a strengthening US dollar and weaker gold prices.

On the flip side, silver hit its lowest point of the year on January 1, the day it sank to $15.91, due to a higher greenback and after the Federal Reserve voted to increase interest rates for the second time in a decade.

Most recently, the silver price was sitting at $17.95 as of 3:00 p.m. EST on February 15, and many market watchers are suggesting that further gains could be in store later this year. In particular, the instability US President Trump brings into the markets could push prices higher, and as a result many investors have turned to precious metals.

In a recent interview with INN, Louis James, editor of the International Speculator, said: “Trump is still a source of instability, which markets don’t like, so this is very bullish for safe-haven assets.”

Another factor that will impact prices are political concerns supported by the upcoming elections in Europe. Potential anti-establishment upsets in national elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany, alongside a global rise in protectionism pose the biggest threats to the euro zone economy, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.

“With populist parties still gaining support and opinion polls consistently proving unreliable, there are plenty of events that could unsettle markets,” Simon Wells, chief European economist at HSBC, said.

Lastly, what will happen with the interest rates this year, as the Federal Reserve said it expected three increases this year, will also affect the precious metal.

“At our upcoming meetings, the Fed will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with…expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,” Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said.

In addition, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that skepticism among investors will not alone dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates when necessary, even while the U.S. central bank monitors such market expectations and does not intend to make surprise policy changes.

So is silver going up in 2017? It’s too soon to tell whether it will see an overall increase for the year, but with the gains it’s already made, prospects seem good. Silver bugs will no doubt be watching closely for cues about what the precious metal will do next.

This is an updated version of an article first published on Silver Investing News on June 12, 2015.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. 

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This article is updated periodically. Please scroll to the top for the most updated information.

By: Charlotte McLeod, March 30, 2016

2015 was a turbulent year for silver. Like many metals, it declined steadily over the course of the year, ultimately recording a fall of just under 15 percent. 

While that’s undeniably negative, as 2016 drew to a close, market participants were nevertheless hopeful about silver’s prospects in 2016. Many were asking the question, “is silver going up in 2016?” and finding out that the answer might be “yes.”

In particular, silver price predictions from key firms were buoying hopes about silver. For example, Thomson Reuters GFMS was calling for an average 2016 silver price of $16.80 per ounce. Meanwhile, other firms had put forward the following estimates:

• Capital Economics – $20 per ounce (by end of year)
• CIBC – $15 per ounce
• Citi Research – $15.70 per ounce
• Commerzbank (OTCMKTS:CRZBY) – $16.50 per ounce (Q1 and Q2 2016)
• HSBC – $18.25 per ounce
• Natixis (EPA:KN) – $12.80 per ounce

With the first quarter of 2016 now over, it’s interesting to look back at the question, “is silver going up in 2016?” Here’s a brief overview of how silver has fared so far this year, and a look at the factors that may influence it moving forward.

Taking a look at the chart below, it’s clear that silver has trended upward in 2016:

More specifically, the white metal had gained 8.1 percent, or $1.14, as of March 30. That’s less than gold‘s 14.84-percent rise since the start of 2016, but nevertheless impressive.

Looking further at stats, silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17, when it reached $15.90. That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged. Gold also got a major boost that day – investors tend to turn to both metals when interest rates are low.

On the flip side, silver hit its lowest point of the year on January 12, the day it sank to $13.77. There don’t appear to have been any specific triggers for that drop, which came just a few days after problems in the Chinese stock market resulted in a very good week for silver and gold.

Most recently, the silver price was sitting at $15.22 as of 5:00 p.m. EST on March 30, and many market watchers are suggesting that further gains could be in store later this year. In particular, analysts have said that the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates low could positively impact silver (and gold) even down the road. Notably, while previously four rate hikes were expected in 2016, now only two are believed to be in the cards.

So is silver going up in 2016? It’s too soon to tell whether it will see an overall increase for the year, but with the gains it’s already made, prospects seem good. Silver bugs will no doubt be watching closely for cues about what the precious metal will do next.

This is an updated version of an article first published on Silver Investing News on June 12, 2015. 

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. 

Related reading: 

Silver Predictions 2016: Watch China and the Gold Price

Gold Buoyed as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

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